Insurgency is on the March Part Deux

I was thinking of writing something along the lines of this, but Jim Henley and then The Poor Man did it as well, or better, than I could have anyway.

In the London Times article Brian Doherty linked for the Hit and Run item discussed below, an Iraqi general estimates "40,000 hardcore fighters attacking US troops" and "part-time guerrillas and volunteers providing logistical support, information, shelter and money" swelling total insurgent ranks to 200,000. It's probably a swag. There's a chance that General Shahwani has something to gain by wildly overestimating the numbers of his (declared) enemies. ("[Shahwani] admitted that his paramilitary police force had been infiltrated by people who are leaking information to the guerrillas.") But here's a brief history of estimates of the size of the insurgency:

Summer 2003 - There's no insurgency! Just some bandits.
Winter 2004 - A few hundred to a couple thousand dead=enders.
Summer 2004 - As many as 5,000.
Fall 2004 - Up to 20,000.
Winter 2005 - About 40,000 dedicated, up to 160,000 kibitzers.
Summer 2005 - ?

All this time we've been assured that our kill ratios are splendid, that the insurgents lose every single encounter and so on. Meanwhile the top US estimate (the 20,000) quadrupled this year.

You are now better informed than the President (as usual!).