CALL THE ELECTION! MAYBE

For the most part, the election will be a replay of 2004, after all the speeches, spins and commercials, most folks voting same party as before. 89% of Bush supporters still with him; 93% of Gore supporters with Kerry.

The most recent polls, at least the one’s I respect, Zogby and Rasmussen show a virtual tie, Zogby has Kerry ahead by one point, Rasmussen has Bush ahead by ½ % Wow. American Research, like Zogby, have Kerry leading in the battlefield states.

Now bear in mind that in our system, its electoral votes, not popular votes that count. So I am going for Kerry and about 283 electoral votes. Also note that 3% of Bush vote is increased support in NY, CA and TX which has no impact on outcome.

Ok so as has been often said in class, vote is largely based on life style/values, what has been termed in one recent book, metro vs retro, when you have large cities, you have more cosmopolitan, secular life styles; in more rural states, folks are more oriented to family, religion and patriotism.

Thus Bush supporters are more likely to come from either the lower middle classes, employees, often at lower echelons in bureaucracies, small business owners, and even a number of blue collar voters. Then there are some from more executive managerial classes, but these are split by gender and industry. Men are a bit more supportive of W than women.

In oil, insurance, defense, real estate, most support W. Much of his support also comes from the upwardly mobile who are now quite affluent. Women, 52% of voters, slightly more toward Kerry. In media, education, research, government workers, more support for Kerry. Trial lawyers-Kerry, corporate lawyers-W. Shrinks/pediatricians, Kerry, cardiac/brain surgeons W (note impact of gender/income).

Kerry supporters are more diverse, much of his strongest support comes from ethnic minorities, especially the have not who do most of the dying in Iraq, eg Spanish speaking and African American. So too do 85% of Jews support him.

While usually liberal, most Jews are offended by W’s embrace of the Evangelicals who see the US as a Christian nation, rather than a secular Nation with a division of Church and State. Catholics are split, mostly by education so about 48%, generally the better educated support Kerry, 46% Bush. Muslims, perhaps 1-2 million voters, esp in MI, NJ and FL, mostly supported W in 2000, now, 80% voting for Kerry. So we will see that most urban areas support Kerry, the suburbs, once solidly Republican, are no longer so, they will split, and the rural, small town vote will go to W. Now my analysis is not based on polls, demographics, but cultural shifts, political organizing, and indeed the central role of Internet.

I am suggesting that unlike previous elections, there will be a much larger than typical number of younger people and minorities coming to polls, esp in urban area. About 14% of voters do not have phones, and most of these, younger, 18-30, have cellphones and have not been polled. Then if we look at the role of liberal 527s like ACT and Move On, perhaps a million more folks will be voting, mostly in red/urban states.

Then in most cities, small groups of progressive activists, like Peace and Justice Voters, have been organizing folks, even in high schools. But now the real clincher has been the role otherwise marginal groups like Punkvoter.com, Rock the Vote, League of Pissed Off Voters, MTV, P.Diddly, the Springstien tour has attracted huge masses, and Mosh, the Eminem single is on the tops of the charts.

So as you watch the polls, keep your eye on PA, OH and FL. If all 3 go Kerry, as seems likely, its over, time to celebrate or lament, don’t waste time seeing how Montana or Oregon go. My best guess now is Kerry ahead, and also taking NM, IA, WI and CO. If Kerry gets PA and either OH or FL, then it will be closer, but he will win.

On Wed, we may know, but then again one scenario has 5 Floridas, and some folks come up with scenarios that wind up with W as Pres, Edwards vp, and one even shows how Edwards becomes prez. Ok, if I am right, as you watch the election and explain the vote according to DeDurkheim, you will impress friends, make new friends, and perhaps even find love. Or you may be thought a fool. Oh, by the way, in every election since 1960, except for 2000, the taller candidate won. Kerry. But so have Halloween mask sales. Bush 53%.