Rising Hegemon
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday shows Barack Obama’s bounce growing to an eight-point lead over John McCain. Obama now attracts 48% of the vote while McCain earns 40%.
When “leaners” are included, Obama leads 50% to 43%. On Tuesday, just before Obama clinched the nomination, the candidates were tied at 46% (see recent daily results). Data from Rasmussen Markets gives Obama a 94.9 % chance of winning.
Obama’s bounce is the result of growing unity among the Democratic Party. Eighty-one percent (81%) of Democrats say they will vote for Obama over McCain. That’s the highest level of party support ever enjoyed by Obama. Still, three-out-of-ten voters are either uncommitted or could change their mind before Election Day. Fifty-six percent (56%) of those swayable voters are women and most earn less than $60,000 a year. There are more conservatives than liberals among these potential swing voters.
These are definitely a group of female voters that were Clinton's base and whom McCain will try to reach out to.
It'll be interesting which campaign picks a Vice-Presidential nominee first. If Obama picks a man, it is a virtual lock I would think, that McCain will pick a woman -- though who that would be is a mystery to me. There are not a lot of female candidates that would appeal to the hard right, yet still appeal to that base.
Meanwhile, it is definitely are argument for Obama picking a woman, and there are many candidates on the Democratic side -- BUT, there's no doubt which female would most appeal to those voters. Clinton's speech yesterday was the speech she needed to give to reenter the Veep sweepstakes. Do not rule her out (and don't have a conniption about it either, this is about winning an election, not about drawing up conspiracies -- take away Lanny Davis, Mark Penn, and Howard Wolfson and that baggage and there's nothing all that wrong to me with choosing Clinton).
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