Undecideds

I haven't seen it directly, but apparently in an effort to up the drama, the McCain campaign with an added boost from Chuck the Todd on MSNBC are proclaiming that "undecideds" will break overwhelmingly for McCain.

Undecideds, like other elections, at this time make up about 8 percent of the polled electorate.

The McCain campaign seems to be trying say all undecideds will vote McCain. While Todd appears to imply that 7 in 10 undecideds will.

Now, Chuck Todd is supposed to be NBC's vote counter, this theory of his is absolute bullshit and I cannot believe he doesn't know this.

Let's go to the historical record:

In the past eight presidential contests, voters who made up their minds during the last week of the campaign never went for either ticket by large margins of 3-2 or 2-1, which potentially could tip the scales.

“There is likely no hidden life raft in the undecided vote for John McCain,” said Andy Kohut, director of the Pew Research Center.

Undecideds generally split 50-50, with a slight variance going one way or the other. The only way McCain is going to be able to win is to peel Obama's soft supporters away.

But what's the problem there?

Negative ads are more likely to turn off those voters, or simply convince them not to vote than to change to McCain. McCain has never given any of these folks a reason to vote for him now, how is he going to convince them to get out and vote for him by Tuesday. Negative ads are supposed to drive someone's supporters away from voting, not in your favor.

Well, Obama has 74% plus strong and enthusiastic supporters, McCain has 56%. That's an extraordinary difference and explains why going negative in this election, the Rove playbook, has been a mistake by McCain. Because though he'd probably lose either way, he'll lose ugly the way he's chosen. He'll need that self-deluded sense of honor more than ever.

That's a LOT of enthusiasm to damper. Add in the fact that a third of voters have already voted and you see the problem.