Thursday, May 05, 2005

How many No. 3's are there?

Just in time for Tony Blair, and those sagging approval rallies comes the announcement of the capture of Al Qaeda's No. 3 honcho.

But how many times have we capture the "purported No. 3"?

We said we got No. 3 here in 2002, Khalid Sheikh Mohammed .

And here in 2003, Saif al-Adel.

And now "Scooter" Al Libbi?
But counterterrorism experts in Europe immediately raised questions about Mr. Libbi's importance.

Pakistani officials said virtually nothing about either the circumstances of Mr. Libbi's arrest or the extent of American aid in the operation. The Central Intelligence Agency has worked extensively with Pakistani agents to search for Osama bin Laden and other Qaeda leaders in the tribal regions of the restive North-West Frontier Province.

Pakistani officials said the arrest came early Monday in Mardan, a town 30 miles north of Peshawar.

Both Pakistani and American officials seized on the arrest as a success in their joint efforts. "This is a big catch," Pakistan's information minister, Sheik Rashid Ahmed, said in a telephone interview. "We were looking for him for a very long time."

White House officials described the arrest as the most important blow to Al Qaeda since the seizure more than two years ago of Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, who is said to have organized the 9/11 attacks.

Pakistani officials said Mr. Libbi had succeeded Mr. Mohammed as head of Al Qaeda's operations in Pakistan, and American officials said he was involved in planning attacks in the United States.

But some intelligence officials in Europe expressed surprise at hearing Mr. Libbi described as Al Qaeda's third-highest leader, pointing out that he does not figure on the F.B.I.'s most-wanted list.

There is another Qaeda operative on the list with a similar name, Abu al-Liby, also a Libyan, who was indicted for an "operational role" in the bombings of two American embassies in East Africa in August 1998. (The surname, in its various transliterations, means simply the Libyan.)

American officials, when asked about the doubts, dismissed the idea that they had confused the Libyans, saying they know Mr. Liby is on the list, and reaffirming the importance of Mr. Libbi. To be included on the F.B.I.'s most wanted list, they noted, a terrorist must have been indicted by a federal grand jury, which Mr. Libbi has not.


Look for this to shake out over the next couple days, but bear in mind the Bush Administrations mantra, as we've discussed before.


1. Something Happens.

2. Spin immediately and hard that it is the greatest thing EVER!

3. Say it is because of Dear Leader.

4. Move on to next over-the-top declaration of Dear Leader's greatness before anyone notices what happened is not the greatest thing ever, but actually made things worse.

5. Blather, Rinse, Repeat!

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