It's our surge and it's our Country too

You know, I've played my share of "Risk" in my time -- oh, not as much as Victor Tiberius Hanson or Fred Germanicus Kagan but I know that when you learn all your tactics from a Board Game, or "Herodotus for Dummies" you may lose track of how actual counter-insurgency works.

And, well looky-here the Manual on CounterInsurgency by Petraeus et al says...

1-85. In almost every case, the counterinsurgent faces a populace containing an active minority supporting a government and a similar militant faction opposing it. To be successful, the government must be accepted as legitimate by most of that uncommitted middle, which also includes passive supporters of both sides. Because of the ease of sowing disorder, it is usually not enough for a counterinsurgent to get 51 percent of popular support; a solid majority is often essential.
- Army Counterinsurgency Field Manual (Pg 24 or 242)

Which means that by their own "Manual" in Anbar WE ARE FUCKED!

In a survey conducted Aug. 17-24 for ABC News, the BBC and NHK, the Japanese broadcaster, among a random national sample of 2,212 Iraqis, 72 percent in Anbar expressed no confidence whatsoever in United States forces. Seventy-six percent said the United States should withdraw now — up from 49 percent when we polled there in March, and far above the national average.

Withdrawal timetable aside, every Anbar respondent in our survey opposed the presence of American forces in Iraq — 69 percent “strongly” so. Every Anbar respondent called attacks on coalition forces “acceptable,” far more than anywhere else in the country. All called the United States-led invasion wrong, including 68 percent who called it “absolutely wrong.” No wonder: Anbar, in western Iraq, is almost entirely populated by Sunni Arabs, long protected by Saddam Hussein and dispossessed by his overthrow.

And it's not like the population there supports the local authorities either:

Anbar’s tribal leaders may have any number of motivations for their alliance with the United States. It’s been reported that the United States government has provided them arms, matériel and money, as well as undertaking more than $700 million in reconstruction projects in the province.

But it seems clear that popular sentiment in Anbar is another matter entirely. Indeed, one other result from our poll may be of particular interest to Anbar’s tribal leaders and the United States military alike: Just 23 percent in Anbar expressed confidence in their “local leaders”; 77 percent had little or none. That’s better than it was in March — but still nearly the lowest level of confidence in local leaders we measured anywhere in Iraq.

Confidence in local leaders, as it happens, is lower only in Diyala — the other province Mr. Bush mentioned in his speech as a focal point of progress in Iraq.

It would be nice if a few enterprising reporters (as opposed to us wild-eyed crazy fuckin' bloggers) would compare the Counterinsurgency Manual Petraeus is said to have written and the actual dynamics of Iraq -- other than say Michael Ware.