Ah, the secret

What's the secret to reduced death (though hardly eliminated) in Iraq? Surely, it must be Commander Codpieces steely resolve in staring down Harry Reid?

...or not:

Q: Well what do you attribute this whole change on the ground to? Is this due to what is called “the surge,” or good diplomacy by the U.S. military, or just luck?

BIDDLE: All of those things have some role but I would put “luck” as probably the biggest.

Here's another thing about "luck" -- it runs out.

Of course, one can ask just how "lucky" it has been for the residents of Baghdad who have been essentially cordoned into solely Sunni & Shiia enclaves? When the ethnic cleansing ends -- there's fewer folks around to kill at one's leisure -- you have to work for it, meaning only the clumsy sociopaths are active. By putting thousand more troops into Baghdad we managed to facilitate the cleansing without by not allowing that messy thing called "resistance". Death goes down, repression remains somehow worse. "Luck" comes in only being there for the climatic and tragic resolution.

Of course, there is also the fact that Al Sadr ordered a stand down by his forces at the end of August for six months -- little noticed at the time, it seems to have been the real deal. Meanwhile, Al-Sadr's Shiia nationalists, and other Shiia groups of less national orientation are turning in their "Risk Cards" and assembling their armies for when they pick up the dice again in the Spring. One can hope the pause lasts, but this is Iraq, what are the odds of things going well for all that long?

As Borat would say, "Great Success".