Taking Apart Gallup Continued

Well, now we know that the race is tied according to Gallup.

But erasing that big Bush lead was shown to be the product of a biased sample where Republicans were vastly overrepresented according to historical voting patters. The story still became "oh my, Bush is pulling ahead, the race is all but over".

Well, today the new Gallup Poll comes out and Steve Soto, as he has before, tells us that while its good that Gallup says it's tied, the internals have been modified. No longer does it oversample Republicans, rather the weighting reflects traditional voting patters.

No longer are Republicans twelve percentage points higher in the survey, rather they are the more traditional and accurate 35 percent, four points behind Democratic Party Identifiers.

The lessen, the Race was virtually tied two weeks ago, and its virtually tied today. Kerry may have gotten a bump, but his momentum is not overwhelming yet, and he never was desperately behind.

Read the Internals, the secret to every poll.

But the pundits never do this. Now they are declaring Kerry's great comeback and momentum. This is good for my candidate, but it is just as invalid now as pronouncing his candidacy in trouble was invalid two weeks ago.