Saturday, May 10, 2008

Electibility


Bottom-line, either one of them will likely whip McCain's ass according to one of the more conservative, GOP friendly polls. We're near, perhaps just emerging from the nadir of the Democratic nomination fight -- although it's always capable of getting worse I suppose. Nevertheless at the point where Obama has had his toughest stretch because he is being attacked and at the point where it's arguable Clinton's also at her lowest point because she has been forced to go negative, they both still beat McCain - who is hardly being touched at all.

Although Democrats are tangled in a fractious primary contest, both Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama probably would win the White House against presumptive GOP nominee John McCain if the election were held now, according to a new Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll.

Arizona Sen. McCain remains competitive, but the poll identified one important vulnerability: Voters ranked him lowest among the three candidates on who could best handle the nation's economy -- by far the most pressing concern for the public irrespective of party, gender or income. Of the three main candidates, New York Sen. Clinton inspired the most confidence on the economy.

In a hypothetical matchup, the poll gave Illinois Sen. Obama 46% to McCain's 40%, with 9% undecided.

Clinton led McCain 47% to 38%, with 11% undecided. The nationwide poll, conducted May 1 through Thursday and released Friday, had a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

The results represent a shift from a Times/Bloomberg poll in February, when McCain led Clinton by 6 percentage points and Obama by 2, within the poll's margin of error.


Clinton's slightly higher margin is attributable to two factor, one the margin of error renders it fairly meaningless, except to the extent the economy is the major concern for the electorate and that's her best rating. If and when Clinton is not the nominee the fact remains that McCain is by far the least highly rated in that area, it is clearly his weakest issue, and Obama & Clinton essentially have the same economic program, with slight differences.

So the bottom-line for this is, I guess, good news for Giuliani.

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