How are we doing?

How are Americans doing? Really. We want to know.

A lot of political pundits (and we all value their contributions here in the blogverse) are asking the question of how well Americans are doing. What they are truly asking is how high are their incomes? Its an ok question in the abstract, not something you would ever ask at a dinner party but its different if the pundit is discussing election year slogans, campaigns, or ...oh yeah, the conventions. Apparently, how well (lotsa income) or how poorly (not a lot of income) are going to steer political choices based on an assumption of a Bush-Cheney economic recovery. I can only imagine what those young fascist kids who were banging on the glass doors in Broward County, Florida where thinking just a few years ago: "My dear sweet Jesus, if Al Bore wins I will not be able to do well by making millions in my job with Halliburton!"

But can we think about this question for real. As it has been passed over without much discussion, IRS data shows first-ever consecutive-year drop and a loss of jobs. What does this mean?

I, for one, believe in complete discosure (ok mostly complete disclosure): I am not sure... As we know, there are many more millions at the bottom, and even more among the "working poor" who do not have enough to cover health insurance, feed the kids, pay the bills, and keep their house. Not good.

At the same time, those with little have little to lose in a crass sense of the words. So a lot of people losing a little income (as well as benefits) might not make the headlines as quickly as the few rich people losing a lot of income. This is what gets the Republicans all worked up... class warfare means being mean to Mr. Rich (personally I always liked Motorhead's solution to the problem).

On the other hand, I am amazed that this is the first time in more than fifty years (since 1953 or so) that the aggregate income level in the United States fell. That's just amazing to me. Call me naive, but I would have simply guessed this might have occurred more recently as well (e.g., the end of the Carter years, during the first Bush's administration, etc.).

Lets consider how those in the middle are fairing. Lets say Bob works for a company, Bobco, and he just checked his retirement account. Since the last democratic convention before this year (2000 if memory serves), Bob made $27,800 in contributions. And the value of that contribution today is $29,600. In FOUR YEARS, Bob's contributions have yeilded about 6.5% profit. Divided by four years of republican rule, thats probably about 1% per year.

Also, during the last democratic convention, the DOW average was 10,600. Today it is around 10,100. The NASDAQ has done little better.

As a result of numbers like these, as well as the fact that Bob has not had a pay increase in three years (Bobco must stay competitive you know), and the observation that the REAL costs of living have gone up a lot over four years (the price of milk, the price of gas (ok, lets not go there), the price of health insurance, etc.), I am even more convinced that republicans cannot manage the economy (which the pundits claim the party is expert at doing, not to mention they tout themselves as experts at it).

However, I am not so sure about the democrats either. But judging by a simple analysis of the past few years, republican rule has been much more harmful to the standard of living than were the Clinton years. Indeed, Bob personally prospered during the Clinton years, with pay raises that outpaced inflation. Bob was in college during the Carter years, so we will stop the analogy (although I know things were particularly bad at the end of Carter's term that affected Bob's summer plans).

We do know that the rates of urban unemployment and worker discouragement (dropping out of the labor force) are particularly bad today. Also, we know that there has been a substantial rate of job loss over the past four years, even if we offset those with a consideration of job growth. The net has been truly staggering under
this administration despite its claims that "we are recovering nicely..." The fact is, there is no recovery for the common people in the U.S. (like Bob) The commoners are still suffering economically, even if a few Corporate Giants are prospering (care to name them?).

And in the end, the income pie in American has shrunk for the first time in more than fifty years.... Simply amazing. Payrolls are declining, and the Bush Administration is touting prosperity! I wonder how Bob and the other employees of Bobco are going to vote? Do you think they will listen to the pundits about the economy and this swell recovery?