Is McCain the Straw

... that brakes the religious right's hold over the GOP?

Gerard Baker of the London Times had this to say about John McCain’s resounding victory in Florida a few days ago:

“It could be that we are witnessing the end of a political era, the domination of conservatives, at least those who have hewed to a traditional social and religious line, in the Republican party … The irony is that it is exactly the positions that conservatives have felt would make Mr. McCain unacceptable to most Republicans - his support for strong measures to tackle global warming or his opposition to some of the Bush administration’s interrogation
techniques for terrorist suspects, for example - that may have helped him connect with a different type of Republican voter. The Republican party may be badly fractured, but it is changing steadily. It may no longer be the case that solid positions on God, guns and gays will be enough to win the party’s nomination….”

Mr. Baker's comments would be hopeful except I think that they fail to understand the nature of McCain.  He wants to win and is willing to compromise his values and beliefs to do so.

Mr. Baker is correct that the GOP is fracturing.  However, I believe that his analysis about McCain is overly, well optimistic from where I sit.  McCain is an opportunist not a rational party builder.

Consider McCain's embrace of his life long pal George W., his extreme boosterism and focus on the Iraq war, and his changing position on several policy positions meant to make himself seem more palatable to the religious right faithful of the GOP. 

McCain wants to win.  He is not a sea change in the GOP.  Whatever media conferred Maverick status he once may have had... that was lost a long time ago.  McCain is establishment and he is not going to remake the GOP into a party of moderation -- read the Salon article by Conason that wonders about McCain as well.