Tuesday, November 06, 2012

It's only fair

To put forth my own prediction, though no should care :

By the way, if Virginia is called for Obama, you might as well get some sleep, because he can lose Ohio, Florida, Colorado and even Iowa and still be reelected.  Though as you can see my prediction has Obama going 4-for-4 -- admittedly Florida is a bit optimistic.

But Obama certainly isn't losing all four of those, at worst he'll split.

You can do your own predicted map, here.


StonyPillow said...

I'll take Flori-duh for Rmoney. Because, well, duh. Make it 303-235.

It's been a long, strange trip, good doctor. Many thanks for serving up the snark every morning.

jimmiraybob said...

Any word on if the Teapublicans have fired on Fort Sumter yet?

Off to vote for 4 more years of intolerable oppression under Muslim communist socialist tyranny. Viva Kenya!

daver said...

I followed Nate Silver back in '08, and every day for the last 3 months (i.e. long before the brouhaha wherein repugs once again demonstrated their ignorance and incompetence, and gave Nate the fame he deserves. With any luck, there'll be a bit of movement toward pundit accountability and better information quality because of it.)

One thing that appeals to a math/computer major like me (BS CMU, MS Stanford): Nate doesn't just compute one or two or three possible outcomes like the guys with the state boards on TV, but all of them - all the possible combinations of which state goes how, each according to its respective probability. Then he plots them all. Go look at the 'Electoral Vote Distribution' graph on the right side, down a little bit:


This is a distribution of all the ways the electoral vote could fall (it's called a histogram). And the vast majority are on the blue side. (Lots of other interesting graphs there as well.)

BTW, Nate's prediction has just gone highest-ever: 11-to-1(!) in favor of Obama. (It went as low as 2 to 1 after the first debate, but has climbed steadily in recent times.) :-)

Barring effective treasonous corruption on the part of republican win-at-any-cost election fixers (busy, those slimeballs), Romney is toast. (and I'll drink a toast to that.)

pansypoo said...

i just want obama to sin more than the chimperor's 'landslide' and say MANDATE!

Mr. Hedley Bowes said...

Atta J Turk FTW!